Recently, while talking through something with someone, I got this advice: "It's not easy, but there are many success stories."
I personally found it an unusual phrasing, so I want to write about it.
What that advice points to, I think, can be rephrased as: you need a certain amount of resources and risk, but it's a way of working where planned, intended results are relatively easy to expect. (And while risk is required, it may still be a relatively low-risk option.) Interesting phrasing.
When you design a measure, you work through all kinds of options — but of course you don't know until you try.
When you're strategically trying to achieve something, wanting to keep expected outcomes in sight as much as possible is human nature.
So if you cut things on the two axes of easy/hard and high/low success probability, you might get something like this:
① Hard / high success probability
- Relatively resource-heavy, but a solid approach.
② Easy / high success probability
- Competitive, but solid. Less about the reward if you do it, more about the opportunity cost if you don't.
③ Hard / low success probability
- Less competition, but relatively resource-heavy and not reproducible. If it hits, though, it's worth more than ④.
④ Easy / low success probability
- Not a very effective measure, and not reproducible either. Lucky if it hits.
That would be the split.
Just to be clear: today's theme is ①.
And the order that's easiest to get consensus on is usually
② → ① → ④ → ③
(of course it depends on org culture).
Conversely, when something succeeds, the order that tends to make a more interesting story is the reverse:
③ → ④ → ① → ②
As a side note, for measures an industry leader should take — and that competitors would find painful — I think the order is
① → ② → ③ → ④.
In other words, thoroughly orthodox measures are extremely painful for #2 and below.
From the top player's view, it's scary when #2 and below land a guerrilla growth move like ③ — but countering with irregular tactics of your own isn't desirable. That creates openings and risk.
I only started writing because I found the phrasing interesting, and I don't have more insight than that, so I'll stop here.
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